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University of Mary Washington Poll: Dems Hold Narrow (40%-37%) Advantage for General Assembly; Youngkin at Just 40%-37% (+3 points) Approval

There’s a new poll out today from the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies.  It’s not very extensive, but it does have some interesting findings, such as:

  • Virginians are nearly evenly divided in their preferences for the upcoming legislative elections, with 40 percent favoring Democratic Party majorities in the House of Delegates and the Senate of Virginia next year, while 37 percent said they wanted Republican legislative majorities, according to a new statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. Among the subset of likely voters, 42 percent said they would like to see the Democrats in charge and 42 percent said they favor Republican control.”
  • “Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents (64 percent) said Virginia public school policies would be a major factor in deciding their vote in the November legislative elections. Among Republicans, 65 percent said education policies would be a major factor. Among those who said they were Democrats, 64 percent said school policies would be a major factor in deciding their vote in the upcoming legislative elections. For independents, 64 percent said school policies would be a major factor.”
  • The survey shows that last year’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade would be a significant factor in the election as well, with 53 percent of those surveyed saying the abortion decision would be a major factor for them. Seventy percent of Democrats considered abortion a major factor for them in the upcoming elections, as compared to 35 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 54 percent said the abortion ruling was a major factor as they considered how to approach the Virginia midterms.”
  • In the survey, 23 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases and 34 percent said it should be legal in most cases. Opposition to abortion is less common: 27 percent of the survey respondents said abortion should be illegal in most cases and 8 percent said it should be illegal in all cases. These figures are nearly unchanged from preferences expressed in the September 2022 survey.”
  • “Asked about the nation’s most important problem, 21 percent of Virginians identified threats to democracy, 20 percent said inflation, 16 percent said the economy and jobs, and 10 percent said immigration.”
  • “In this new survey, 40 percent of Virginians said they approved of Glenn Youngkin’s job performance, as compared to 37 percent who disapproved. The remaining respondents were unsure. Among Republicans, 74 percent thought Youngkin was doing a good job, as compared to 36 percent of independents and 16 percent of Democrats. Youngkin’s three-point net positive assessment was down from a 15-point net-positive assessment in the September 2022 survey.”
  • President Biden “had a net negative 17-point rating (35 percent expressing approval, 52 percent disapproval, with the rest unsure).”

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