With just 30 days until Virginia’s 2023 Election Day (11/7), political analyst Chaz Nuttycombe is out with his latest forecast. See below for highlights, and CNalysis – here for more detail on the House of Delegates and here for more detail on the State Senate.
- Right now, Chaz has the State Senate at 21D–18R, plus one tossup race, with a 71% chance of a Democratic majority and a 29% chance of a Republican majority.
- Chaz has one State Senate district: SD24 (Democratic Sen. Monty Mason vs. Republican Danny Diggs) – rated as a tossup.
- Other competitive State Senate districts are: SD31 (Democrat Russet Perry vs. Republican Juan Pablo Segura) at “Tilt D”; SD27 (Democrat Joel Griffin vs. Republican Tara Durant vs. Independent Monica Gary) at “Tilt R”; SD17 (Democrat Clint Jenkins vs. Republican Emily Brewer) at “Lean R”; SD16 (Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg vs. Republican Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant) moving from “Lean D” to “Likely D”; SD04 (Democrat Trish White-Boyd vs. Republican Sen. David Suetterlein) moving from “Very Likely R” to “Likely R”; and SD12 (Democrat Natan McKenzie vs. Republican Glen Sturtevant) moving from “Solid R” to “Very Likely R.”
- As for the House of Delegates, Chaz has it at 49D–48R, with three tossup races, and with a 57% chance of a Democratic majority vs. a 34% chance of a Republican majority, plus a 9% chance of a 50-50 tie (which would require some sort of power-sharing arrangement).
- Chaz has three tossup House of Delegates districts: HD82 (Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams vs. Republican Del. Kim Taylor); HD21 (Democrat Josh Thomas vs. Republican John Stirrup), and HD97 (Democrat Michael Feggans vs. Republican Del. Karen Greenhalgh).
- Other competitive House of Delegates districts include: HD65 (Democrat Josh Cole vs. Republican Lee Peters) at “Tilt D”; HD22 (Democrat Travis Nembhard vs. Republican Ian Lovejoy) at “Tilt R”; HD30 (Democrat Rob Banse vs. Republican Geary Higgins) at “Lean R”; HD89 (Democrat Karen Jenkins vs. Republican Baxter Ennis) moving from “Likely R” to “Lean R”; HD41 (Democrat Lily Franklin vs. Republican Chris Obenshain) moving from “Lean R” to “Likely R”); HD57 (Democrat Susanna Gibson vs. Republican David Owen) at “Likely R”; HD75 (Democrat Stephen Miller-Pitts vs. Republican Del. Carrie Coyner) moving from “Very Likely R” to “Likely R”; HD85 (Democrat Nadarius Clark vs. Republican Michael Dillender) at “Likely D”; HD86 (Democrat Jarris Taylor vs. Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza) at “Likely R”; HD58 (Democratic Del. Rodney Willett vs. Republican Riley Shaia) moving from “Likely D” to “Very Likely D”; and HD71 (Democrat Jessica Anderson vs. Del. Amanda Batten) moving from “Likely R” to “Very Likely R”; and HD64 (Democrat Leonard Lacey vs. Republican Paul Milde) at “Very Likely R.”
These seem reasonable to me, although obviously we can quibble over very slight differences in various races. What do you think? Have you voted yet? What are you doing to help elect Democrats (because, obviously, Democratic majorities aren’t going to just happen on their own – we have to make them so!)?