Jake Paul is set to compete for the first time in 2025, facing former middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in a 10-round cruiserweight bout in Anaheim, California. This marks Paul`s 13th professional boxing match and his first against a former boxing world champion, aside from his November fight against the then 58-year-old Mike Tyson.
On paper, Chavez Jr. represents arguably the most significant boxing opponent Paul has faced, excluding Tyson. However, Chavez Jr.`s activity has been limited, with only one fight since December 2021. Even during his supposed prime years (2008 to 2016), he was known for a lack of training discipline, frequently missing weight. His career has been marked by inconsistency and focus issues, including failing drug tests in 2009 and 2012, and refusing a drug test before his 2019 fight against Daniel Jacobs, leading to an indefinite suspension.
In 2021, Chavez Jr. lost to Anderson Silva, a former UFC star who had minimal prior boxing experience. While Chavez Jr. showed flashes of competitiveness against Silva, he often lacked conviction and appeared fatigued early, despite being younger and more experienced in boxing. Though he won a majority decision in 2011 to claim the WBC middleweight title, his career has largely been overshadowed by his legendary father, Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. Given this history, it`s reasonable to question whether Chavez Jr. can truly commit himself fully to prepare for this fight.
In contrast, Paul has maintained a consistent fighting schedule, competing three times in 2024 and notably defeating Anderson Silva in 2022. He has approached his boxing journey with caution, typical of a newcomer, yet enjoys unique advantages due to his widespread popularity and influence.
Therefore, the central question surrounding this matchup isn`t really “Can Paul defeat Chavez Jr.?” but rather, “Is Chavez Jr. capable of defeating Paul?”
How Jake Paul Shows Growing Fighter Traits
Paul possesses good fundamental footwork and leg strength, giving him mobility in the ring. In boxing, effective footwork is crucial for evading punches and creating offensive angles. It`s not just about moving, but understanding *when* and *where* to move. While mimicking the rhythm of a boxer can be taught, true skill lies in grasping subtleties like angle recognition, setting traps, timing, and using movement to close distance. Developing this level of ring IQ requires years of consistent sparring and mitt work, repeatedly seeing and reacting to punches until it becomes second nature.
Paul is beginning to demonstrate a growing understanding of these nuances.
After five years in the sport, he exhibits increased composure and confidence during fights. He appears alert and calm when approaching opponents, comfortable initiating or reacting in exchanges. A particular weapon he has refined is his overhand right. He often sets this up by feinting a jab low, dropping his head and eyes to sell the fake before launching the powerful overhand right towards the head, often surprising his opponent with significant force.
Deception is a vital element in boxing. Experienced fighters and coaches know that the basic punches are universal; what distinguishes fighters is the creativity in how punches are set up, delivered, and disguised. Paul has started to evolve in this regard, relying more on strategic thinking than raw power alone. It seems Paul is adopting a more technical approach, embracing the philosophy of `hit and don`t get hit`.
While Paul may still lack the polished technique of a long-time professional boxer, and his movements might appear unconventional, his instinctive approach and surprising power derived from his awkwardness make him a dangerous opponent.
A boxer`s mechanics are built fundamentally from the ground up, akin to learning a complex dance. Mastering the basics requires repetition, athleticism, strength, coordination, and the ability to learn and adapt. With 12 pro fights under his belt, Paul`s capabilities are becoming clearer. He has earned some respect within the boxing community for his dedication and his positive influence outside the ring, such as promoting women`s boxing and creating opportunities for other fighters on his cards. Reports suggest he is disciplined in training, consistently putting in the work both inside and outside the gym.
Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.`s Experience Edge
Chavez Jr. enters the ring with the demeanor of a seasoned fighter, steeped in boxing lineage. His ring presence exudes a confidence rooted in years of muscle memory from high-level competition. He practically grew up in the gym, and this deep-seated experience should not be underestimated. Chavez Jr.`s ring intelligence is evident in his movement; his lateral footwork might not be flashy, but it`s instinctive and efficient. He navigates the ring with familiarity and displays a certain calm within his aggressive moments.
In July 2024, Chavez Jr. returned after a nearly three-year break, securing a unanimous decision win in a six-round cruiserweight bout against former UFC fighter Uriah Hall. This fight likely helped him shake off ring rust and potentially boosted his confidence.
Chavez Jr. typically fights behind a high, tight guard, leaning forward with his weight on his front foot. This is a classic Mexican boxing stance, designed to draw opponents in just enough to counter them or smother their attacks. His primary weapon is a lead left hook, which he often directs to the body early in a fight, a tactic favored by his father. This can be effective in wearing down an opponent`s stamina.
Chavez Jr. understands boxing fundamentals – the jab, movement, slipping punches – and his extensive experience gives him a significant advantage over someone like Paul, whose boxing career is still in its formative stages.
Jake Paul`s Improving Left Hook and Strategy
Keep a close watch on Paul`s footwork and reflexes; they will be central to his strategy. Expect him to work behind a varied jab, altering its level and rhythm. He will likely employ in-and-out movements, exploding forward to land shots – uppercuts, crosses, and combinations – before quickly retreating to avoid Chavez Jr.`s counters. This hit-and-not-get-hit approach relies heavily on hand and foot speed, as well as precise timing.
Look for Paul to initiate clinches frequently. These won`t just be for rest but also to disrupt Chavez Jr.`s rhythm, halt his forward momentum, and neutralize his offense, especially when Paul isn`t prepared to exchange punches. One of Paul`s developing tools is his lead left hook; he will use it both to inflict damage and as a means to pivot or step around, changing his position off the center line. This lateral movement could be crucial in avoiding Chavez Jr.`s power shots, particularly his dangerous left hook. As the old boxing adage warns, `never hook with a hooker,` so Paul must choose his moments carefully when unleashing his improving lead left hook.
Also, pay attention to the variation in Paul`s jab; it`s not just about speed. He incorporates body feints to mix up his attack patterns and keep Chavez Jr. guessing. And when Chavez Jr. coils up for his potent left hook, expect Paul to adopt a high guard (“hold the phone”) with his right hand to protect his chin.
Paul`s footwork should be sharp in the early rounds when adrenaline is high. However, observe closely as the fight settles into the “comfort zone,” where the pace slows and fighters read each other more clearly. As Chavez Jr. potentially tires and seeks a second wind, Paul may look to increase his intensity. Anticipate moments of fierce exchanges, some back-and-forth aggression, and potentially some `dirty boxing` tactics from Paul.
The Veteran`s Weapon: Chavez Jr.`s Established Left Hook
It wouldn`t be surprising if Chavez Jr. starts the fight with significant confidence, perhaps even appearing a little overzealous, given his perception of sharing the ring with a YouTuber rather than a seasoned pro.
Chavez Jr. will likely begin slowly, like a veteran. He`ll take the first round or two to assess Paul, understanding his opponent`s strengths and, more importantly, his weaknesses. Expect him to test Paul`s power early by blocking shots with his gloves to gauge their force. One of Chavez Jr.`s preferred setups is the “stab jab” to the body. You`ll likely see this punch used often and deliberately towards Paul`s midsection. This isn`t just about scoring points; it serves multiple purposes. Chavez Jr. uses it as a trap, starting low before following up with a more dangerous high attack. This can force Paul to drop his guard to defend his body. No fighter enjoys getting hit hard in the gut, and Chavez Jr. knows this. This tactic will also test Paul`s ring IQ. How Paul defends the stab jab will be revealing. Does he remain upright or lower his level? Does he step back out of range? Or does he reach down to parry the jab, which could be problematic?
Watch if Paul lowers his hands or overly extends his guard to block the body jab. This is precisely when Chavez Jr. is likely to launch his signature punch – a potent left hook. It`s fast, automatic for him, and highly effective. If Paul doesn`t see it coming, he could find himself knocked down.
Analyzing the Potential Fight Dynamics
Paul will likely aim to leverage his natural size and physical strength as a more established 200-pound fighter. Expect him to advance in bursts, attempting to disrupt Chavez Jr.`s rhythm and potentially unbalance him with heavy combinations. Chavez Jr. has shown a tendency to lose his balance when pressured, putting himself in poor positions. Paul will likely target this weakness, particularly as the later rounds approach and Chavez Jr.`s conditioning may wane.
Stamina is a critical factor here. It`s reasonable to believe Paul has improved his conditioning through consecutive training camps and working with an experienced team. Conversely, Chavez Jr. has a history of inconsistency and conditioning problems, and fighting at 200 pounds (significantly above his championship weight of 160 pounds) could impact his energy over 10 rounds. Although this is Paul`s first 10-round fight, the difference in their physiques will likely be visible, with Paul appearing leaner and more athletic compared to Chavez Jr., who may look slightly less conditioned around the midsection.
However, physical appearance doesn`t guarantee victory; experience, skill, strategy, stamina, and willpower are decisive. Chavez Jr. absolutely has a viable path to winning. He could control the fight at mid-range, effectively target Paul`s body early on, and answer Paul`s offense with his own. He has the experience to make Paul uncomfortable and potentially force him into mistakes, especially since Paul sometimes struggles transitioning from mid-range to inside fighting and is quick to tie up opponents to halt momentum and conserve energy. Yet, Paul`s youth, athleticism, and developing understanding of when to box and when to engage make him dangerous, especially if he can vary his movement, pace, and punching pressure effectively at opportune moments.
Who Takes the Victory?
I see this fight as a clash between two fighters on vastly different journeys: one born into boxing royalty who may have taken the sport for granted at times, versus one who found a niche and built a career through calculated moves and undeniable dedication under the public eye. I believe the key difference lies not just in raw experience, but in Chavez Jr.`s inherent feel for the ring against Paul`s relentless drive to prove himself. This subtle contrast could be the deciding factor. So, can Chavez Jr. defeat Paul? Absolutely. But based on their recent trajectories and preparation, I don`t predict that he will.
Ellis Thorne 
Percy Harlow